VARStats

VARStats is a football analytics service that turns match statistics into probabilities. For 100+ leagues, European cups included, it estimates the chances of results, goal totals, corners and cards, and explains each estimate: team form, days of rest, fixture congestion, the referee's record. The model is a Dixon-Coles rating fitted separately for each league, with time-decayed form, home advantage, shot quality (xG, shots on target) and a referee adjustment for cards; probabilities are calibrated weekly against played matches. The site keeps an honest record: how many picks came through, where the model over- or under-promises, and what it does not do — no guaranteed wins. Available on the web in 9 languages, as an Android app and as a Telegram bot.